Thoughts on Lebron and a Conference Finals preview

Thoughts on Lebron and a Conference Finals preview. 5/14/2010

The Boston Celtics defeated The Cleveland Cavaliers 94-85 last night, winning the series in six games. This led to rumors that the Cavs fired head coach Mike Brown today. Dan Gilbert (owner of the Cavs) said this is not true, but every expert thinks it is only a matter of time before it happens. This is the second year in a row the Cavs have had the best record in the league and not made it to the NBA Finals. The Celtics winning came as a huge surprise to many NBA fans, mainly because against the Celtics posted a 3-9 record against Cleveland, Orlando, and Atlanta in the regular season. Cleveland had home court advantage and the league MVP, so most experts were picking Cleveland to win in five or six games.

Here is why they didn’t win. Lebron’s elbow is hurt. It is not because Lebron quit on his team, it is not because Lebron does not know how to lead, it is not because Lebron does not have a winners mentality. Combine the elbow injury with the fact that the Celtics are playing team defense at the same level that they did in 2008, when they won the championship, and it is no surprise that Cleveland scored a meager 86 points in game two, 87 in game four, 88 in game five, and 85 in game six. Had Lebron been healthy there is no way they would have scored less then 95 points in any of those games. Lebron scored 15 points in game five, when in the regular season he would often have 15 points by halftime.

The Celtics had huge advantages at the point guard, shooting guard, and power forward positions, so of course they were going to win with Lebron at less than 100 percent. Mike Brown had a roster with many quality players, but only one true superstar. While the Celtics had a starting lineup that was easy to select, many people will second guess Mike Brown starting Shaquille O’Neil and Antawn Jamison in the front court. Kevin Garnett had a very easy time shooting over the top of Jamison, and Shaq is one of the slowest players in the league and is a poor defender of the pick and roll. Many people think Anderson Varejao should have been a starter because he would have made life harder for Garnett. I personally would have used a lineup of Mo Williams, Lebron at shooting guard, Jamison at small forward, Varajao and Shaq. However the story shouldn’t be about the Cavs, give credit to the team that won.

The Celtics will now play the Orlando Magic, a team that has not lost a single game in the playoffs. The Magic have home court advantage and the deepest team in basketball. I predict the Magic will win this series in seven games, due in large part to the large amount of time the Magic have had to rest. The other reason I am picking the Magic to win is the match-up at shooting guard. The Celtics start Ray Allen, the Magic Vince Carter, both extremely talented players on the downside of their career. The difference is Ray Allen will have more trouble keeping Vince Carter out of the paint then Carter will chasing Allen off screens. Allen is pretty much useless if his 3-point shot isn’t falling, while Carter can attack the basket. However if you give Carter space he can knock down 3’s with ease, just like almost every other player on Orlando. Jameer Nelson, Jason Williams, JJ Reddick, Mickael Pietrus, Matt Barnes, Ryan Anderson, and Rashard Lewis are all good to great three point shooters. Add the leagues leading rebounder and shot blocker in Dwight Howard and you have a combination that is almost impossible to beat.

One thing the Celtics have going for them is they have a player in Kendrick Perkins who can guard Howard one on one. One of the main ways the Magic shooters get open is off double teams of Howard. They also have the best point guard in basketball in Rajon Rondo, but finishing in the paint will be harder then ever before for Rondo because of Howard’s freakish length and leaping ability. Another reason I don’t like the Celtics chances is Paul Pierce is in a shooting slump, scoring less than 20 points in every game but one against Cleveland. Pierce will be guarded by solid defenders all series, with Matt Barnes and Pietrus getting the primary responsibility of keeping Pierce off his game.

I think the Western Conference Finals will not be nearly as close. The Lakers won thee out of four in the regular season. The Lakers will win in five games this series. Kobe Bryant, with a full week of rest, will be too much for Jason Richardson and Grant Hill to handle. Amare Stoudemire will gets his points just like he does in every playoff series, but will not be able to make Gasol work hard to get to his spots. When Gasol gets to his sweet spots on the floor, he is as efficient a scorer as any power forward in basketball. Robin Lopez will be the starter at center for the Suns, but has been out of action since March 26^th with back problems. This could slow the Suns offense down. However they do need him to play big minutes, if not Andrew Bynum will control the offensive glass and give the Lakers extra shot attempts. I also feel the Suns might be a little too happy to be where they are, having just knocked off the Spurs, their hated rivals for years. However, only a championship will satisfy Kobe and Phil Jackson. Throw in the fact that the Lakers have the best bench player in basketball in Lamar Odom and home court advantage, and the Suns just do not have enough firepower.

Coming soon- NBA mock draft