5/19 The NBA draft lottery was last night, and now we know which teams will be picking in which spots on June 24th. The Wizards won the lottery with a 10.3 percent chance to win. The 76ers were only the 6th worst team in basketball last year but luck was on their side, as they are picking second in the draft. The Nets were the worst team by far last season, with a record of 12-70, and have the third pick. This years draft could be one of the weakest in history. Here’s how the first round will play out.
1. Washington Wizards- John Wall
This pick is very simple. For all the same reasons the Chicago Bulls took Derrick Rose first in 2008, The Wizards will take Wall first in this years draft. You simply do not pass on a point guard with the type of freakish athleticism John Wall has. At 6’4, Wall will be one of the fastest players with the ball in his hands at the NBA level. As a freshman Wall led his team to a number one seed in the NCAA tournament, averaging 16.6 points and 6.5 assists per game. Wall has absolutely amazing speed and leaping ability, but is also a willing passer with solid court vision and a decent jump shot. The Wizards should be in full rebuilding mode, looking to unload any player over the age of 25 for draft picks or expiring contracts. Moving Gilbert Arenas should be priority number one, as he will only impede Wall’s development with his selfish playing style. Look for Washington to try to build around Wall and 7-footer Andray Blatche. Blatche is only 23 years old and averaged 14 points and six rebounds per game, shooting 48 percent from the field.
2. Philadelphia 76ers- Evan Turner
Turner was college basketball’s Player of the Year, and it’s not hard to see why. Turner averaged 20.4 ppg on 52 percent shooting to go along with 9.2 rebounds and six assists per game. He led his Ohio State Buckeyes to a number two seed in the tournament, where they lost to the University of Tennessee in the Sweet 16. Listed at 6’6, Turner will have the size and strength to defend NBA shooting guards. Turner is an extremely intelligent player who can create his own shot off the dribble and is also great at moving without the ball to create separation from his defender. Look for Turner to play shooting guard, as Philadelphia spent its first round draft pick on point guard Jrue Holliday last year. Holliday averaged only eight points and four assists a game last year, but is just 19 years old. Turner is being compared to Brandon Roy.
3. New Jersey Nets- Wesley Johnson
Wesley Johnson was the most athletic wing player in college basketball last season, and put up great stats against great competition. Listed at 6’7, Johnson scored his 16.5 ppg very efficiently, shooting slightly over 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from three. The Big East Conference is always one of the deepest and most talented leagues in the country, so Johnson should be as ready as a college player can be for the NBA. Johnson grabbed 8.5 rebounds per game, a terrific total for a perimeter player. He also made an impact on defense with 1.7 steals and 1.8 blocks per game. Johnson would be a great fit for the Nets, as he is excellent running the floor in transition. The Nets are at their best when Devin Harris is able push the ball in transition. The Nets drafted a similar player to Wesley last year, Terrence Williams. Starting both of them would give Devin Harris multiple targets to throw the ball to on the fast break, as both can run the floor for an ally-oop or pull up for a three pointer. This would also allow them to move Courtney Lee to the bench, where he could be one of the better bench scorers in the league.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves- Demarcus Cousins
Cousins was the best big man in college basketball last year. Listed at 6’11 and 270 pounds, Cousins projects as a center at the NBA level. Cousins only played 23 minutes per game, and still managed to average 15 points and 10 rebounds per game. Cousins shot 60 percent from the field, an absurdly high percentage. He also averaged 1.8 blocks per game, very impressive considering he was only on the court for about half the game. Cousins would fit in perfectly on the Timberwolves should he reach his potential, as it would allow superstar Al Jefferson to move to his natural position of power forward. Along with Kevin Love, the Timberwolves would have the best group of young big men in the NBA. They also are set at point guard, with Johnny Flynn and possibly Ricky Rubio. Cousins game reminds me off Andrew Bynum. The major concern with Cousins is his attitude, as he has a reputation for not working hard and being confrontational with coaches and teammates.
5. Sacramento Kings- Derrick Favors
Sacramento picked the Rookie of the Year with the forth pick in last years draft, and hopes it can draft someone just as talented as Tyreke Evans in this years draft. The Kings already have several young big men, but Favors simply has too much potential to pass up considering how weak the rest of this draft is. Listed at 6’10 and 246 pounds, Favors will be one of the most athletic power forwards in the NBA from day one. Don’t believe me? Watch the dunk contest from the 2009 McDonalds All-American game and you’ll see what I’m talking about. Despite his impressive athletic gifts, Favors production was modest in his one season at Georgia Tech. He averaged just 12.5 points per game despite shooting 60 percent from the field. His rebounding numbers were good, averaging 8.4 boards per game to go along with two blocks per game. Favors needs to develop a few go-to moves around the basket, like a jump hook or a turn-around jumper, so when he can’t beat his man down the floor he can still make a shot. Sacramento has several young big men like Jason Thompson, Carl Landry, and Spencer Hawes, so they don’t really have a need for another one. Look for the Kings to trade down in this years draft for a wing player that could ease the scoring burden on Tyreke Evans.
6. Golden State Warriors- Cole Aldrich
The Warriors have a high-scoring backcourt with Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry, but need a player to protect the paint on defense. Seven-footer Cole Aldrich may be up to the task. The starting center on a Kansas team that was the favorite to win the national championship before the NCAA Tournament, Aldrich blocked 3.5 shots and grabbed ten boards per game. However, there is no reason to think Aldrich will be able to score at the NBA level because he only averaged 11.3 points per game, despite normally being much bigger and stronger than his college defenders. In a good draft this would eliminate his chance of being a top 10 pick, but in this draft there isn’t enough competition to knock him out of the top 10.
7. Detroit Pistons- Greg Monroe
The Pistons are in a bad situation. They don’t have a star player on the team, won’t get a star player at this spot in the draft, and aren’t expected to land a star free agent. What they can do with this pick is get a player that will raise the play of his teammates, which is what Greg Monroe does with his passing. Monroe routinely picked up assists from the low post, high post, and out on the perimeter. Monroe averaged 16 points and 10 rebounds a game at Georgetown. Look for the Pistons to build around Monroe, as well as last years first round draft pick Austin Daye and point guard Rodney Stuckey.
8. Los Angeles Clippers- Al-Farouq Aminu
Even though the Clippers had a typically bad season, they actually do have some talented players on the roster. Baron Davis, when healthy, is one of the better scoring guards in basketball. Eric Gordon is only 21 years old and averaged 17 points per game. Chris Kaman averaged 18.5 points and nine boards per game. Blake Griffin, who last year was the number one pick in the draft, should be able to contribute immediately if he has recovered from the knee injury that made him miss all of last season. The one position they are thin at is small forward, which is where Aminu could play in the NBA. Playing against the quality competition of the ACC, Aminu averaged 15.8 points and 10.7 rebounds per game for Wake Forest. The knock on Aminu is he doesn’t have enough quickness or a good enough jump shot to play small forward in the NBA or enough strength to play power forward in the NBA. He also failed to ever take Wake Forest deep into the NCAA Tournament. Aminu is only 19 years old, so he more then enough time to improve his jump shot and his great length should help offset whatever he lacks in quickness.
9. Utah Jazz- Xavier Henry
The Utah Jazz were one of the best teams in the Western Conference all season, the reason they have this pick is they acquired it from the New York Knicks in a trade. Utah beat the Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs this year. Utah will only be able to win playoff series next year if they can keep Carlos Boozer, who is an unrestricted free agent. Utah made it to the Western Conference semi-finals despite a weak group of swingmen. Derron Williams needs a small forward to pass to that is better offensively then Andrei Kirilenko or CJ Miles. Xavier Henry was a top 10 recruit coming out of high school two years ago, and had a solid season last year at Kansas. Xavier is 6’6 and has a picture-perfect shooting stroke, but only averaged 13.4 points per game. I believe this was because he wasn’t sure exactly what his role was on offense, because he wasn’t the clear cut first option. Xavier is only 19, and has a ton of room to grow as a player.
10. Indiana Pacers- Donatas Motiejunas
A 19 year old 7-footer with a soft shooting touch, Donatas reminds some scouts of Andrea Bargnani, the first pick in the draft three years ago who averaged 17 points per game last year. Donatas can handle the ball and score in the post. The problem with Donatas is he simply doesn’t rebound the ball well, averaging only 4.5 per game, a pathetic total for someone so tall. There are also questions as to whether he has the strength to guard NBA centers. Montiejunas wouldn’t have to guard centers with Indiana because they already have Roy Hibbert, who can protect the hoop at 7’2. The Pacers could then trade Troy Murphy. Danny Granger, Hibbert, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandon Rush and Donatas would be a nice group to build around.
11. New Orleans Hornets- Luke Babbit
Sharpshooter from the University of Navada could replace Peja in the starting lineup.
12. Memphis Grizzlies- James Anderson
Big time scorer for Oklahoma State, could replace Rudy Gay in the starting lineup when he leaves as a free agent.
13. Toronto Raptors- Hassan Whiteside
Seven footer who averaged a ridiculous 5.4 blocks per game for Marshal last season. Plays same position as Chris Bosh, who will leave as a free agent.
14. Houston Rockets- Ekpe Udoh
Best player on a very good Baylor team, would replace the things Carl Landry provided to the team before he was traded to the Kings for Kevin Martin.
15. Milwaukee Bucks- Gordon Hayward
He’s better than Carlos Delfino, their starter at small forward last year. Brandon Jennings will get him open shots.
16. Minnesota Timberwolves- Willie Warren
Had a great year two seasons ago with defenses geared up to stop Blake Griffin, was hurt last year and his production sunk.
17. Chicago Bulls- Eric Bledsoe
Hinrich was Derrick Rose’s backup but is now in the starting lineup, and will remain there unless they sign Lebron James or D-Wade.
18. Miami Heat- Patrick Patterson
Would make a nice backup to Mike Beasley.
19. Boston Celtics- Sherron Collins
Need a quality backup for Rondo
20. San Antonio Spurs- Jarvis Varnardo
One of the best shot-blockers in college basketball history, could replace 35 year old Antonio McDyess if he decides to retire.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder- Ed Davis
Big time potential, not much production at North Carolina.
22. Portland Trailblazers- Solomon Alabi
At 7’1 could provide insurance for Greg Oden.
23. Minnesota Timberwolves- Elliot Williams
Averaged 18 a game for The University of Memphis on 46 percent shooting.
24. Atlanta Hawks- Quincy Pondexter
Need a shooting guard to replace Joe Johnson when he leaves as a free agent.
25. Memphis Grizzlies- Avery Bradley
One of the best high school players in the country two years ago, played good defense at Texas last year but was inconsistent on offense.
26. Oklahoma City Thunder- Damion James
Productive career at Texas, averaged 10 rebounds a game last year.
27. New Jersey Nets- Greivis Vasquez
Need a backup point guard and Vasquez is one of the best players the University of Maryland has ever had
28. Memphis Grizzlies- Jordan Crawford
He averaged 20 a game for Xavier… and he dunked on Lebron James.
29. Orlando Magic- Lance Stephenson
One of the best players in the history of New York City high school basketball, Magic have no real needs so they are in the best position to take a risk like this.
30. Washington Wizards- Devin Ebanks
Best overall player for a West Virginia team that went to the Final Four.

Ed Davis 21st overall is a really bad projection Pete. He was a top 3 pick last year and he just happned to be on an awful North Carolina squad this year. He's an NBA talent that's been on NBA scouts radar for a couple years now. He will go top ten, top 15 at the worst.
ReplyDeleteI think Ed Davis had alot of hype after his freshman season, when he had strong performances off the bench... this year he was a starter and his many flaws were exposed... he can't shoot and he's not strong enough to guard NBA big men.. the reason he was on an awful team was he played awful in many big games.....
ReplyDeletePledge Pete I told you that you were crazy for not having Daniel Orton on the list but now I see why... its because you need the room to fit the Kansas bench. Neither Aldrich or Henry will be in lottery and Collins will be lucky to be picked in first round but besides that it looks good and i like your projections for the grizz
ReplyDeleteYea this draft is gonna be like the 2006 draft, where the top five picks were Andrea Bargnani, Lamarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, and Sheldon Williams
ReplyDelete