NBA Finals Preview

NBA Finals Preview-

Has anyone ever heard the expression “history tends to repeat itself”? Well this NBA Finals match-up shows the expression is true, as the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers will meet in the Finals for the 12^th time in NBA history. Their most recent match-up was in 2008, with the Celtics winning in six games.

Both teams had to beat extremely talented teams to get here. The Celtics had to beat an Orlando team that won 59 games in the regular season, good for the second best record in basketball behind Cleveland’s 61. Before playing the Celtics the Magic were undefeated in the playoffs, but were unable to adjust to the way the Celtics played defense. Orlando’s offense revolved around passing the ball to Dwight Howard in the post, who would then score or draw a double team. However in this series no double team came, he could not shoot a high percentage against the defense of Kendrick Perkins, Kevin Garnett, and Rasheed Wallace. Howard averaged 18 points per game in the regular season despite constant double teams, but against single coverage he only managed to score 13 points in game one and seven in game three, both Orlando losses. The player most affected by the Celtics not sending a double team was Rashard Lewis, who scored only six points in game one, five in game two, and four in game three. He averaged 14 in the regular season.

Ray Allen and Paul Pierce both had very strong performances, and showed why they are two of the best scorers of this era. Allen scored 25 points in a game one win in which the Celtics only won by four points. Pierce scored 28 in game two that the Celtics won by only three points. He then politely escorted the Magic out of the playoffs with 31 points in a 12 point game six win, hitting four of five 3-pointers. Rondo ran the offense with consistency, never having a game with less than six assists. Maybe Dwight Howard should stop doing stupid dances and calling himself “Superman” until he develops a few dependable post moves. Put the Superman cape away until you can make a hook shot, Dwight.

The Lakers defeated the Suns in six games. The Suns played with as much heart and determination as any team ever has. Steve Nash suffered a black eye and a broken nose in this years playoffs, but he never allowed that to effect his play. This series reminded me of some of the Spurs-Suns series of the past. The Suns played with great heart, Steve Nash dished out tons of assists, Amare Stoudemire scored a ton of points, the role players his 3’s… yet they ultimately lose because they don’t play defense. This time it wasn’t Tim Duncan scoring consistently in the paint, it was Pau Gasol, who had over 20 points in four of the games. Kobe Bryant did what he always does, hit huge shots when the game is on the line. He had 30 points in game five, 37 in game six. Open looks were hard to come by in this series because of Grant Hill’s solid defense, but Kobe is actually “open” whenever he is on the court, because he creates so much space with his cross-over dribbles and gets so much elevation on his jump shot.

The Lakers have home court advantage against the Celtics, but I expect the The Celtics to win in six games. The Celtics are a significantly better team then they were in 2008 because Rajon Rondo has made the leap from average to elite, and Rasheed Wallace has replaced PJ Brown as the third big man. I think the Lakers have not made much of an improvement as a team since 2008, but I think they will win two games at home because Kobe will catch fire. Look for Rajon Rondo to be able to attack the basket at will because there is no way 35 year old Derrick Fisher will be able to keep him in front of him. The x-factor in this series is Lamar Odom, and I think it might be a good idea for Phil Jackson to put him in the starting lineup. Andrew Bynum is clearly not 100 percent healthy because of a knee injury, and having Odom at power forward would make Garnett leave the paint. Gasol at center would make Perkins leave the paint, which would give Kobe a clear path to the basket once he beats Ray Allan off the bounce. If Odom can consistently score 20 and force Garnett to take tough shots, the Lakers have a chance.